With Weak Demand and Mounting Chip Costs, the Smartphone Sector Mired in Dilemma

Image Source: Visual China

BEIJING, June 12 (TiPost) -- In the first quarter of 2023, global smartphone shipments fell by 13.3% year-on-year, the lowest since 2014.

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In a previous article, "The Second Half of Smartphones: Product Differentiation, Configuration Accelerated Inward," the author summarized the changes that smartphone manufacturers have made at the product level to withstand the consumption downturn. By targeting different online and offline consumer groups, they achieve the greatest possible coverage through different product strategies. At the same time, they popularize larger storage and better screens to meet people"s growing photo, video, and entertainment needs.

In addition to the product-level changes mentioned earlier, smartphone manufacturers are also struggling to survive in their own ways: layoffs, cutting unprofitable businesses, raising product prices, increasing localization rates, and various countermeasures are all on the table.

For smartphone manufacturers, the reason why they emphasize reducing costs and increasing efficiency is not only because of the well-known economic downturn and consumption contraction, but also because of the rising prices of chips.

Recently, an analyst revealed that the price of a single high-end chip, the Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen2, has risen to $160, an increase of $40 from the previous generation Snapdragon 8 Gen1, making it the most expensive chip Qualcomm has ever produced. TiPost App has sought confirmation from relevant smartphone manufacturers and received affirmative answers.

Counterpoint Chart

In the first quarter of 2023, MediaTek had the largest share of the smartphone processor market, accounting for about 32%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. Qualcomm had 28%, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous quarter, and Apple had 26%. The remaining market share was held by Spreadtrum and Samsung.

It is widely believed that MediaTek"s products are aimed at the mid to low-end market, which is why it has been able to maintain its position as the top shipper. However, in the past year, MediaTek"s products have been less competitive than Qualcomm"s in the high-end market, with lower computing power, higher power consumption, and weaker image optimization. After Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ aimed at the mid to high-end market with a lower price, MediaTek was basically squeezed out of the high-end mainstream market.

On the other hand, according to data from research institutions, Huawei"s HiSilicon chip shipments had already fallen to zero as early as the beginning of this year. It can be said that at present, competitors cannot exert much pressure on Qualcomm, which is why it dares to raise prices in a market downturn.

An expert in the consumer electronics industry told TiPost App: "Currently, Qualcomm"s situation is very similar to that of Nvidia in the graphics card industry. Although there are competitors in the smartphone chip industry, they are not enough to pose a threat."

Counterpoint Chart

As the core of a smartphone, the chip determines the computing power, communication, and even image capabilities of the phone. It can be said that the chip is the heart of a smartphone. According to Counterpoint"s teardown analysis, Qualcomm"s Snapdragon 8 Gen2 processor chip accounts for about one-third of the hardware cost of the Samsung S22 Ultra.

Nowadays, due to the rising price of chips, the hardware cost of smartphones is constantly increasing. Mr. Li, an employee of a smartphone manufacturer, told TiPost App: "Smartphone sales are constantly declining, and chip costs are constantly increasing, so naturally, we need to seek changes in other components. For example, using domestically produced screens, cameras and other components is the strategy that various manufacturers adopt, which is what consumers call "cost-cutting"."

Mr. Li also told TiPost App that "nowadays, smartphones are no longer the era of making friends by exchanging phones for 699 or 799 yuan."

In the past two years, the prices of smartphones have been quietly rising. Previously, flagship phones could be bought for 3,000 yuan, but now they need at least 4,000 yuan. The so-called "thousand-yuan phones" promoted by various brands also start at 1,500 yuan.

Image source: Visual China

Faced with the increase in costs and the decrease in sales, layoffs and even the closure of smartphone businesses are no longer big news in 2023.

In March 2023, Lenovo"s Savior smartphone business was completely shut down, with a compensation standard of N+2 for employees. Currently, only Motorola remains as Lenovo"s only smartphone brand.

In May 2023, OPPO dissolved its chip subsidiary, ZEKU. OPPO responded by saying, "In the face of global economic and market uncertainties, after careful consideration, the company has decided to terminate the business of the chip subsidiary ZEKU. This is a difficult decision, we will handle related matters properly, and continue to create value by making good products."

Regarding the Savior, the main problem is believed to be that the market share of gaming phones has never been able to meet external expectations. The sales volume of the gaming phone category exceeded one million units in 2022, which is negligible compared to the billion-level shipments of the entire smartphone market.

According to the "2022 China Gaming Industry Report," the actual sales revenue of China"s gaming market in 2022 was 265.884 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.629 billion yuan, or 10.33%, year-on-year; the scale of gaming users was 664 million, a decrease of 0.33% year-on-year. The user base and consumption power that gaming phones have always relied on have reached a turning point, and sales have been slow to pick up, making it difficult to continue the story.

As for OPPO"s dissolution of ZEKU, some insiders believe that although external factors may have an impact, the high investment and short-term inability to achieve returns are undeniable facts, and perhaps this is the reason why OPPO had to resort to cutbacks as a desperate measure.

Nowadays, Xiaomi has entered the car-making industry, Xiaodu has released a smartphone that focuses on AI learning, and Meizu is also seeking development in the car infotainment system through a partnership with Gillette. In short, these are all areas that have not been explored before. As the saying goes, "moving a tree may cause death, but moving a person may save their life." Writing a new story is always better than sticking to an "over-told story."

Image Source: Visual China

Currently, although foldable screens are a new trend in the smartphone industry and continue to grow rapidly, according to market research firm Canalys, the global shipment of foldable smartphones is only expected to reach 14.2 million units in 2022, accounting for only one percent of the total smartphone shipments. In the short term, it is not enough to be a driving force to revive the smartphone industry.

On the other hand, 5G networks do not seem to be the primary motivation for people to upgrade their phones.

After China officially issued 5G licenses in June 2019, the country has always been at the forefront of 5G network construction, but the user coverage rate is still not high. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of April this year, China has 634 million 5G network users, accounting for only 37.1% of the total number of mobile users.

Previously, Huawei was subject to US sanctions and can only sell smartphones that support 4G networks. However, Huawei users do not seem to care about this, which also proves that 5G networks are not essential.

Mr. Wang recently purchased the latest Huawei P60 smartphone. He told TiPost App that the phone was bought for him by his son, and he did not realize that the phone did not support 5G. However, he did not feel that the speed or signal was not good when using it. Mr. Wang stated that 4G or 5G would not affect his choice of a smartphone because he "cannot use it."

Picture source: Visual China

Regarding the market trend of the smartphone industry in 2023, Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, believes that the shipment volume of smartphones in China will be around 270 million units in 2022 and will also be around 260 million units in 2023. Xu Qi, Vice President of Realme, also stated earlier that the overall smartphone market in 2023 will be "stable with a slight decline".

As for overseas markets, they are also in a downturn now, and Chinese manufacturers are facing more uncertainties. On May 30th, the vivo Germany official website showed that vivo has decided to temporarily stop selling products in the German market. According to TiPost App, the main reason for the suspension of sales is that Nokia won the patent lawsuit against vivo. In July 2022, OPPO also encountered a sales ban in Germany for the same reason.

Some analysts pointed out that when the market is growing rapidly, Chinese smartphone manufacturers can be more generous and tend to choose to spend money to settle patent disputes. However, in the downturn of the market and the sudden increase in pressure, companies that go overseas have reasons to give up some markets.

Realme, which had previously set multiple fastest growth records in overseas markets, also chose strategic consolidation. From the previous crazy expansion in Southeast Asia to the "2+15" strategy in 2023, which focuses on India and China as its core, and 15 countries and regions as its key targets, they will no longer expand.

Perhaps for most smartphone manufacturers, accepting the reality of being in a consumer winter and not losing money to survive is their biggest expectation. (This article was first published in TiPost App, author/Wu Honglei, editor/Zhong Yi)

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